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The latest data show that the first half of this year, China's consumer goods industry presents the following characteristics:
Production scale has steadily expanded, but the textile industry slowed down
From January to May in 2017, the added value of light industry, medicine and textile industry increased by 8.4%, 10.9% and 5.1% respectively, and the scale of production expanded steadily. Sub-sectors, the light industry and the pharmaceutical industry showed a positive development trend. Segmentation of the field to see, wine and beverage manufacturing industry, pharmaceutical manufacturing, textile and apparel apparel industry, a substantial increase in production growth in three industries, driven consumer goods industry as a whole to the overall situation. In contrast, the growth rate of industrial added value in the textile and chemical fiber manufacturing industry has fallen sharply, resulting in a 1.6 percentage point decline in the growth rate of the textile industry compared with the same period of last year.
Export situation has improved, but the decline in pharmaceutical exports growth
From January to May in 2017, the export value of the consumer goods industry was 153,945 million yuan, up by 6.1% over the same period of last year. The growth rate was 3.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year. Compared with the end of last year, the export situation increased by 3.8 percentage points.
Due to the original drug medicine, Chinese medicine Pieces, veterinary drugs and biological drugs and other segments of the export growth rate of the sharp decline in the export situation of the pharmaceutical industry than in the past has deteriorated, export delivery value year on year growth rate over the same period last year and the previous year The end of the year were down 2 and 2.5 percentage points.
Consumer investment dual drive, domestic demand continued to expand
The demand for products such as sports and entertainment products, furniture, Chinese and Western medicines, grain and oil, foodstuffs, beverages, tobacco and alcohol has increased significantly under the influence of the healthy development of macroeconomy, steady growth of residents' income and a number of national consumption measures.
The scale of industrial investment in consumer goods has also grown steadily. From January to May in 2017, the fixed assets investment of consumer goods industry reached 2128.3 billion yuan, up 5.2 percent year on year, higher than the average level of manufacturing industry. Among them, the textile industry investment grew the fastest, an increase of 9.3%.
Loss of improvement, industry development for the better
Since 2017, the loss of consumer goods industry has improved, the loss and loss of the depth of the same period last year fell 0.5 and 1.5 percentage points. This shows that, after experiencing the pain of transition, consumer goods industry enterprises are gradually adapt to the economy "new normal", by increasing varieties, to mention quality, a brand of unremitting efforts to create new growth points.
According to the relevant forecast, the second half of China's consumer goods industry trend is expected to show the following trends:
Production growth slowed down steadily
"Slow stabilization, steady progress" will be the second half of the overall trend of China's economic operation. In the external environment gradually turn the background, the scale of consumer goods industry will continue to expand.
Into the second half, the high inventory is still placed in front of the industry a prominent problem. 2017 1 to 4 months, consumer goods industry inventory of 305.15 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9%. Among them, finished goods inventory 1306.29 billion yuan, accounting for inventory ratio of 42.8%, an increase of 8.3%. Sub-sectors, light industry, pharmaceutical industry finished product inventories are substantially increased, is not conducive to the future release of production capacity and production increased. It is expected that the second half of the growth rate of industrial production of consumer goods will decline compared with the first half of the year.
Export growth is full of variables
China's foreign trade situation is still grim and complex, consumer goods industry exports are facing instability, uncertainties more. "Anti-globalization" wave surging, protectionist forces rise, the international political turmoil, foreign trade uncertainty increased. The BDI index, which indicates global trade activity, fell again below 1,000 points since early May. China's exports are still labor-intensive products mainly to medicine as the representative of the technology-intensive products export situation worrying.
But China's foreign trade development still exists many favorable conditions, consumer goods exports to the good fundamentals have not changed. For example, the state to promote foreign trade to stabilize the policy continued to force. "With the way" strategy for the implementation of the enterprise in the traditional European and American markets, increasing the uncertainty of the case, to provide more market options. In May, the export order index and export manager confidence index increased by 0.6,0.4 to 48.8 and 50.9 respectively.
Domestic demand to further expand
Over the past year, consumer confidence to pick up the trend is obvious. Into the second half, due to the tightening of the real estate market, residents spent on the proportion of disposable income increased. In addition, including the "three products" strategy, including the expansion of domestic demand measures in depth, consumer demand growth momentum.
The first quarter of 2017, business climate index and entrepreneur confidence index with the chain were substantial growth, significantly improved business climate. The improvement of the enterprise boom shows that the entrepreneur is optimistic about the macroeconomic development and market environment change, which is conducive to enhancing the enthusiasm of the next round of investment.
It is worth mentioning that, since March 2017, the Ministry of Industry issued "2017 consumer goods industry," Mishina "special action plan" since the "three products" strategy continues to deepen, accelerate the development of consumer goods industry innovation.
